Jakarta - To commemorate World Population Day 2017 which falls on July 11 every year, the Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas held a Population Day Discussion 2017 with the theme “Indonesian Demography: The Desired Future” at the Bappenas Building, Tuesday morning.
The discussion was attended by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the National Population and Family Planning Agency (BKKBN), the Ministry of Health, the Demographic Institute of the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, the Center for Population and Policy Studies, Gajah Mada University, and other stakeholders.
The discussion is expected to discuss population developments to seek breakthroughs and policy innovations from stakeholders so that Indonesia's human resources can contribute optimally to the economy. Minister of PPN/Head of Bappenas Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that Indonesia needs to maintain a balance in population growth in the future.
"The government needs a special strategy to maintain the balance of population growth, considering the trend of population decline and aging population in the future can affect the country's fiscal balance," he said.
Currently, population conditions between provinces in Indonesia vary greatly. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) per woman of childbearing age (15-49 years) in some provinces, including East Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, and North Sumatra, is still quite high, above 2,5.
Meanwhile, in several other provinces such as DKI Jakarta, East Java, and DI Yogyakarta, the TFR has reached a fairly low figure, namely below 2. In 2015, the Inter-Census Population Survey (SUPAS) conducted by the Central Statistics Agency recorded a figure of 2,28.
In 2017, the United Nations (UN) projected a medium scenario of TFR decline, namely to only 2 children or less in 2035. At the same time, the population will reach 300 million people and Indonesia is still the fourth most populous country in the world. TFR, if it continues to decline, will reach a fairly low number so that the population will decline during the aging population, namely the period 2055-2065.
"Regarding the decline in TFR, there needs to be a new approach in making the public aware of the importance of the right number and quality of children," said Minister Bambang.
In addition to TFR, the level of public health is also important in maintaining the balance of population growth because it greatly influences mortality rates, especially Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) and in the long term will increase Life Expectancy.
The UN assumes that the IMR decline will occur at a rate of two percent per year, or faster than the current trend. This puts Indonesia relatively closer to the Philippines in terms of infant mortality rates for every 1000 live births, which is around 14 in 2030.
Anticipating Demographic Bonus Opportunities. The decline in TFR that occurred after the introduction of the Family Planning program in the 1970s has made Indonesia currently in the stage of opening a window of opportunity. (windows of opportunity), namely a condition in which the dependency ratio of the Indonesian population continues to decrease and is heading towards its lowest point, which according to calculations will occur in 2020-2030 (UNFPA, 2015).
As an illustration, in 2015, SUPAS released the Indonesian population dependency rate of 49,2, which means that every 100 productive-age residents bear the burden of around 49 non-productive-age residents. In 2020-2030, this condition will give rise to a demographic bonus, namely an opportunity enjoyed by a country as a result of the large proportion of the productive population (age range 15-64 years) compared to the non-productive population (age under 15 years and over 65 years).
With good preparation, the demographic bonus can be utilized to have a long-term broad impact on economic growth. However, on the other hand, without a mature strategy, the demographic bonus can have a negative impact on Indonesia. In order to reap the benefits of the demographic bonus in 2020-2030, the government has prepared a number of steps, including improving the quality of productive-age human resources so that they have work skills that are in accordance with the demands of the labor market.
In addition, expanding employment opportunities, one of which is by increasing investment, is also important to absorb skilled workers. Ideally, the demographic bonus can increase the income of the population which triggers increased consumption and investment or savings growth.
Furthermore, if utilized properly, the demographic bonus can reduce the level of dependency, boost productivity, and become a source of economic growth. When TFR declines, per capita income growth to meet the needs of the child population can be diverted to improving the quality of human resources.
Therefore, the productive age population must be able to become an engine of growth, and not an economic burden. Thus, improving the quality of human resources is the key to success so that the productive population has competence and expertise. Then, soft skills must also be improved so that the workforce has a positive attitude, is optimistic, creative, and is willing to move forward. Human resource policies, population, health, education, economy and employment, infrastructure and natural resources as well as legal and security politics must also be directed appropriately.
"The government wants to emphasize integrated policy improvisation between ministries/institutions and other related parties in maintaining the balance of population growth, anticipating changes in population structure, and optimizing the demographic bonus," concluded Minister Bambang. (National Development Planning/BAPPENAS and Government Communication Team of the Ministry of Communication and Information)
